POWER - Electricity sector: Smoothing the way
Vietnam needs investors in its electricity but a range of difficulties make many reluctant to come on board.
Electricity generation in Vietnam is forecast to be at the top of the range in the Asia Pacific region. The country has rich potential for development with demand from its 87 million population and capacity of 17,000MW in 2009.
With one of the youngest workforces in the world and one of the fastest growing economies in Asia, Vietnam is set to attract a lot of attention over the next few years. A great deal of money, both local and foreign, will go to improving electricity capacity. Build-operate-transfer (BOT) contracts are in the process of negotiation around the country, including the 1200MW Nghi Son 2 plant and the 750MW O Mon 2 plant. “With this month seeing the first draft of the Ministry of Industry and Trade’s Power Development Master Plan VII, the dynamics of Vietnam’s power industry will change forever,” said Mr. Oliver Massmann, Partner at Duane Morris LLC, who has been in Vietnam for 20 years and has lengthy experience in the power sector.
Power Generation Capacity Ownership Structure, 2009
Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade, 2009(MOIT)
Although Vietnam is now ranked sixth, just below Malaysia, in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment Ratings, foreign investors face a range of challenges in doing business in its power sector.
Decision makers
When VFR asked Mr. Joel Laykin, Secretary General of the Independent Power Producers Forum (IPPF), about the challenges a power project may face in Vietnam, his reply was “Government decision makers”. “Negotiation time” was the answer from one Vietnamese expert long involved in power projects such as Phu My 2-2, which has a capacity of 715MW.
Investors believe that the legal framework in the power sector still contains many shortcomings, such as unclear documentation and uncertain regulations regarding BOT projects. The biggest challenge, analysts say, is that strict requirements over independent power producers (IPPs) prevent investors from conducting their investment.
Electricity of Vietnam (EVN) being the single electricity purchaser also discourages investors and adversely affects Vietnam’s development. IPPs cannot sell their electricity at a fair price, which affects their ability to recover costs and earn profits. A lawyer from Malakoff, a power generation company planning to invest in Vietnam, said that high Government subsidies in the power sector meant investors find it difficult to compete. “Despite government encouragement and a competitive roadmap, few investors can meet the financial requirements and the sector will continue to be monopolized by EVN for the next ten years,” said Mr. Massmann.
There are also some unreasonable requirements in pre-licensing procedures. Perhaps because direct investment is quite new for Vietnam’s power industry, decision makers appear confused. Under Decision No. 30/2006/QD-BCN, investors must obtain agreement from EVN on electricity purchasing and a commitment from banks or credit institutions regarding lending. The problem is that this takes a long time for companies and banks are unlikely to provide such a guarantee before projects have been approved. Investors must also ensure their equity/debt ratio is 30/70 or less in special circumstances. But there is no definition of “special circumstances” and equity expectations are too high for such major projects.
Article 31 of the Law on Electricity, meanwhile, defines a fixed electricity price that creates difficulties for investors in negotiating prices with EVN. Bidding procedures are also time-consuming. For example, negotiations regarding the Phu My 2-2 project continued to two years after the tender closed. One analyst estimates it takes four to six years to establish a project and a further two or three years to negotiate a power purchase agreement (PPA) in Vietnam.
Beyond the decisions
In the current context, joint ventures with Vietnamese partner(s) may be a better option and more time-efficient for investors than stand-alone development. But “if you want to have a private Vietnamese partner taking part in your project, it will be very, very costly,” said one experienced investor. “And ‘private’ is not ‘private’ in Vietnam.” If a private partner is more than 30 percent owned by a state-owned enterprise (SOE), it is considered an SOE and must follow rules on SOEs, not those for private companies. Another problem for private enterprises is the lack of information regarding tenders compared with SOEs, which have good relations with government officials.
According to Ms. Dao Nguyen, Managing Partner at Mayer Brown JSM, Vietnam has put in place fairly clear legal fundamentals for investment in the power sector compared with ten years ago. The legal framework, she believes, is not a challenge for investors. “Vietnam is a developing country and needs projects like Phu My 2-2 and Phu My 3, but lenders to these projects required the State to offer a wide variety of guarantees. Currently, the State is deciding whether it is appropriate to use Phu My 2-2 documentation as the benchmarks for future BOT projects, since it was licensed over 10 years ago and the law and economic environment in Vietnam have changed since then,” she explained. “Thus, investors may find it difficult, because they may have to wait for the State to make a decision on the type, scope and extent of the guarantees that would be available and what types of projects would receive such support from the Government.”
For example, under the Law on Investment, the Government will decide what projects are considered “important” and will decide which ones will be provided guarantees in respect of loans, raw material supply, sale of products, payment and other guarantees, but they are yet to define what an “important” project is. Further, foreign exchange guarantees are not enough for investors/lenders of major projects. Government guarantees were limited by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under the Enhanced Structural Adjustment Program (ESAP), and although these restrictions expired at the end of 1998 Vietnam continues to follow them. On loans with a maturity of 1 to 12 years, the Ministry of Finance can only provide guarantees of up to US$400 million per year. Investors complain that the State lacks a sub-national debt financing system, for example a municipal bond market.
Wait and see
In February 2006, the Prime Minister approved the Electricity Market Master Plan for the development of the electricity market.
After 2022 Competitive retail power market 2005 – 2014 Competitive power generation market 2015 – 2022 Competitive wholesale power market
Source: MOIT
According to the master plan, the Government is planning to slowly remove subsidies on electricity. To 2014, IPPs will not be allowed by EVN to sell directly to the market, to 2022 EVN will be transformed into independent distributing companies, and after 2022 customers nationwide will have the right to select an electricity supplier. The reality is, though, that customers will have to accept a competitive price, which will be higher than today’s price.
When asked about investor attraction, Mr. Dau Duc Khoi, Deputy General Director of EVN, said “I think we must wait until the opening up of a competitive power retail market. If supply exceeds demand by 20 percent, power producers will have to compete more strongly. The result will be higher quality electricity and competitive prices, and investors will come.”
Mr. Oliver Massmann, Partner at Duane Morris LLC, practicing in corporate international taxation, power/water projects, matters relating to oil and gas companies and telecoms, privatization and equitization, mergers and acquisitions, and general commercial matters for multinational clients in relation to investment and doing business in Vietnam.
VFR: What can the Vietnamese Government do in the short term to facilitate investment in the energy sector?
Mr. Massmann: First, the Government should increase the retail electricity price. This is mandatory in funding the expansion that EVN must undergo to meet rising demand and also gives EVN the ability to pay more in PPA’s, which will allow more investment to be made in the energy value chain.
Second, de-bottleneck the process of negotiating PPAs and Gas Supply Agreements (GSAs), accelerate the development of the energy markets to move beyond Petro Vietnam (PVN) as the single buyer of natural gas and EVN as the single buyer of power, and accelerate the timetable allowing for direct sales of gas and power to the industrial sector.
Third, Vietnam needs to develop a regulatory framework in gas and power that ensures transparency and predictability for investors.
VFR: What would you recommend in forming a sustainable energy policy that will benefit Vietnam in the long term?
Mr. Massmann: One of the most important things is defining “sustainable energy”, so that energy provision meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs. This usually refers to renewable sources as well as to energy efficiency.
Also, balance supply and demand with realistic growth targets, allowing for adequate planning; evaluate commercial alternatives to meet strategic objectives; and strike a balance between meeting supply needs and long-term energy security, cost-benefits, etc.
Vietnam needs to encourage the development and use of cogeneration technologies that greatly improve the efficiency of energy use by the coproduction of power and steam and develop a long-term plan for energy supply that includes a diversity of resources. Do not rush to meet all near-term supply needs with coal, when there might be better alternatives available. Hydrocarbons will continue to play a huge role in Vietnam’s energy future, so policies need to be developed that most efficiently utilize those resources.
Finally, I recommend Vietnam apply the right technology at the right time. Do not rush to apply technology too early before it is ready. Do not lose sight of the entire cost to incorporate renewable resources (for example, the interconnection cost of wind with thermal or hydro resources in order to have stable sources of supply). finrevvn
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Coal import for thermo power plants
The local coal using demand for thermo power plants has surpassed domestic supply that may led to lack of coal for thermo – electricity in the near future. Thus, the local firms should start looking for foreign coal sources. Formerly, finding a foreign coal supplier was difficult. However, now Vietnam could source coal from Russia, a feasible market for the import by buying stakes in mines or purchasing the right to mine or buy coal from the country, said Nguyen Manh Quan, a member of the committee and the head of the Heavy Industry Department. The price of imported coal increased to $120 per tonne from $70. In addition, no investors, including the Electricity of Vietnam were interested in the plan because the imported coal costs were higher than that of domestic Although the Vietnam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin) was tasked as import coal firm but no investors had discussed the issue yet, Tran Chien Thang, deputy general director of Vinacomin, said. Up to this time, Vinacomin inked 15 memorandums in principle with coal suppliers because there are no detailed figures from its customers to send to its suppliers. Investors, especially State - owned ones preferred local sources because costs were partly subsidised by the government, Quan added. The Electricity of Vietnam (EVN) also did not want to use imported coal instead of domestic ones because of much higher cost. Meanwhile big coal firms kept hesitating, a private one signed an agreement for buying coal for 20 years with a foreign supplier and were willing to import more to supply other companies, said Ta Van Huong, director of Energy Department. An Vien Group and Vincom Group suggested to the Ministry that they could help local firm source coal from Russia. However, the field's experts wondered that whether many firms should participate in the coal import because that might lead the competition. However, Huong affirmed that more firms could enter the import business as long as they followed the government rules. The government would set up a legal framework to regulate local coal importers as well as avoiding conflicts among them.tbkt
Power - EVN invests in over 5,200 projects in 5 years
Electricity of Vietnam (EVN) has recently reported its investment projects since 2006 so far. During past five years, EVN has invested in 5,238 projects with the investment for each project at from one billion dong and higher. Of which, 75 projects have been invested by the EVN holding company, 22 others invested by EVN's joint stock companies and the remaining financed by EVN's subsidiaries. Of 5,238 projects, 3,647 projects have been finished, 1,403 others are under construction and 188 projects have not started yet. EVN also put into operation 21 power source projects, 445,000 power grid projects from 110-500 kV. At the same time, EVN is carrying out 15 power source projects including six being started construction in 2010 and hundreds of power grid projects. The group is also preparing to start 11 power source projects and finalising procedures for four power source projects to start in 2011 and put into operation after 2015. According to EVN, because the demand of number of power projects is big while the electricity price is not allowed to increase along with the price of materials and fuel increases thus power projects are not attractive. Foreign investors after pouring capital into Phu My 3 factory has not invested in any BOT power factory so far. Many projects do not have enough capital for reinvestment. However, EVN said that although many projects are under slow progress, from 2006 so far, the group has paid both principal and interest rate of loans in accordance with the credit contracts signed with creditors. Regarding long term investments in 2010, EVN's total investment reached 6.155 trillion dong in September, bringing the total figure in Jan-Sep to 36.8 trillion dong including over 17.7 trillion dong for power source projects, 9.913 trillion dong for power grid projects, 1.721 trillion dong for telecommunications, engineering and 7.409 trillion dong paying for loans.tbkt
CURRENCY - Vietnam may devalue Dong twice in 2011, Credit Agricole says
Vietnam's dong is about 2 percent cheaper to buy in the black market than the rate banks pay and devaluations are likely in 2011 to bring the official exchange rate into line, according to Credit Agricole CIB. The dong was trading at between 19,820 and 19,880 per dollar at money changers in HCM City this morning, according to a telephone information service run by state-owned Vietnam Posts & Telecommunications. The rate in the interbank market was 19,485 as of 9:35 a.m. in Hanoi. The Vietnamese central bank permits the currency to trade up to 3 percent on either side of its reference rate, currently set at 18,932. Dollar liquidity has dried up because of the disparity between the official rate and market rate, forcing importers that need foreign exchange to buy euros instead, according to an October 11 research note written by Dariusz Kowalczyk, a Hong Kong- based senior economist and strategist at Credit Agricole. "The foreign-exchange market in Vietnam is distorted by all the regulations and by all the methods that companies are forced to use to circumvent them," Kowalczyk said in a phone interview yesterday. "But the big picture point to make is that relatively soon after the last devaluation, the implied exchange rate is already 2 percent weaker than the official rate." The last devaluation of 2 percent on August 18 was "not large enough to balance the market," Kowalczyk wrote in the note. The dong will probably be devalued by another 2 percent in February and by a further 3 percent in the northern hemisphere's summer or autumn of 2011, bringing the official exchange rate to 20,500 per dollar, he wrote. Vietnam's inflation accelerated in September to 8.9 percent, the fastest in four months. The trade deficit widened to $1.05 billion in September from $395 million the previous month, according to preliminary general Statistical Office figures. The currency's weakness is being driven by Vietnam's "large and persistent" trade deficit and by inflation, wrote Kowalczyk. The trade shortfall is putting "pressure on Vietnam's balance of payments, requiring further devaluation in order to at least partially restore exports' competitiveness," he wrote.BUS WEEK
ECONOMY - Hanoi: Average income in 2010 rises by 10 to 13 pct compared to 2009
The increase of average income in 2010 is one of several comparative figures given at the conference on "Sustainable development of heroic and cultural Hanoi capital, the city for peace" recently held in Hanoi.
The author of the discussion on 10-year socio-economic development of Hanoi (2000-2010), achievements and some problems in management, Dr Mai Thi Thanh Xuan (University of Economics and Business, under the Vietnam National University) also brought out other notable figures of the outstanding achievements of Hanoi.
People's income increases significantly
Accordingly, if GDP of Hanoi only reached 39.944 trillion dong in 2000 (accounting for 9.04 percent of total GDP of the country), to 2009, it was 205.890 trillion dong (accounting for 12.41 percent).
With the economic growth rate always in the top ranking of the country, GDP growth in 2010 is predicted to reach about eight to 8.5 percent, bringing the average growth of 2006-2010 period to be about 9.85 percent (6.96 percent nationwide).
According to Dr Xuan, throughout the last 10 years, the economic structure of Hanoi has shifted towards absolute increase (from 4.154 trillion dong in 2000 to 13.033 trillion dong in 2009), and relative decrease (from 10.4 percent to 6.3 percent) in the value of agricultural, forestry and fishery products.
The value of industrial sector sees both absolute increase (from 14.570 trillion dong to 82.297 trillion dong) and relative increase (from 36.5 percent to 41.3 percent). Although the proportion of service sector fell slightly from 53.1 percent in 2000 to 52.4 percent in 2009, the absolute value still went up by five times, from 21.220 trillion dong to 107.590 trillion dong.
Proving for the estimate that the income and life of Hanoi's residents have been considerably improved, Dr Xuan has showed that GDP per capital in Hanoi has increased on average of 33.2 percent per year(national average increase is 29 percent) in the last 10 years.
According to prediction of the city, the average income of Hanoi in 2010 could be from 35 to 36 million dong, up by 10 to 13 percent compared to 2009. Currently, the average income of Hanoi has already been 64.8 percent higher than the national average. In 2009, average income of Hanoi was 31.8 million dong, and of the country was 19.3 million dong.
The rise of income has lowered the number of poor households of the whole city from three percent in 2006 to 2.4 percent in 2008. From 2009, Hanoi applied a new standard in assessing poverty (which is two times higher than the national standard), so the poverty rate under the new standard is 6.09 percent, and estimated to decline to 5.4 percent in 2010.
Remarkably, the average housing area of the urban residents might reach seven to 7.5 square metres per person this year (30 percent of local people had to live at average housing area of three square metres per person).VN-ECONOMY
RESOURCES- Coal import for thermo power plants
The local coal using demand for thermo power plants has surpassed domestic supply that may led to lack of coal for thermo – electricity in the near future. Thus, the local firms should start looking for foreign coal sources.
Formerly, finding a foreign coal supplier was difficult. However, now Vietnam could source coal from Russia, a feasible market for the import by buying stakes in mines or purchasing the right to mine or buy coal from the country, said Nguyen Manh Quan, a member of the committee and the head of the Heavy Industry Department.
The price of imported coal increased to $120 per tonne from $70. In addition, no investors, including the Electricity of Vietnam were interested in the plan because the imported coal costs were higher than that of domestic
Although the Vietnam National Coal and Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomin) was tasked as import coal firm but no investors had discussed the issue yet, Tran Chien Thang, deputy general director of Vinacomin, said.
Up to this time, Vinacomin inked 15 memorandums in principle with coal suppliers because there are no detailed figures from its customers to send to its suppliers.
Investors, especially State - owned ones preferred local sources because costs were partly subsidised by the government, Quan added.
The Electricity of Vietnam (EVN) also did not want to use imported coal instead of domestic ones because of much higher cost.
Meanwhile big coal firms kept hesitating, a private one signed an agreement for buying coal for 20 years with a foreign supplier and were willing to import more to supply other companies, said Ta Van Huong, director of Energy Department.
An Vien Group and Vincom Group suggested to the Ministry that they could help local firm source coal from Russia. However, the field's experts wondered that whether many firms should participated in the coal import because that might lead the competition.
However, Huong affirmed that more firms could enter the import business as long as they followed the government rules.
The government would set up a legal framework to regulate local coal importers as well as avoiding conflicts among them.VNNEWS
Bilateral relations - US and Vietnam build ties with an eye on China
A visit to Vietnam this week by Robert M. Gates, the United States defense secretary, is just the latest step in a bilateral relationship that is at its warmest since diplomatic ties were established 15 years ago.
A steady progression of careful gestures has eroded the enmities of the Vietnam War, built a basis of increasing trust and turned the two nations' attention, in large part, from issues of the past to the present.
It is the second American cabinet-level visit to Vietnam in four months; Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton came in July. Exchanges at this level have become almost common, if not routine.
Gates was here for a gathering of defense chiefs from the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations and partner countries.
"I would say that relations are at their highest point in 15 years," said Hung M. Nguyen, director of the Indochina Institute at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va. "We have basically removed the major hurdles of suspicion in military-to-military relations, and I would expect things to proceed quite fast," he said.
The main concern shared by the two nations underscores the shifts in alliances in the 35 years since the war came to an end: Chinese claims in the South China Sea.
It is an issue with some historical paradox. While the United States sought during the war to contain an expansion of Chinese Communism into Vietnam, it is aligned with Vietnam today in concern over an escalation of China's maritime claims.
China was an ally of North Vietnam in its war against South Vietnam and the United States in the 1960s and '70s and is now a partner of a unified Vietnam in an uneasy relationship between Communist nations of vastly different size.
"Vietnam worries about Chinese in the South China Sea, and America worries about interference in freedom of navigation," Dr Hung said. "Because of this, the strategic interests of Vietnam and the United States converge."
On Tuesday, Vietnam announced that China had released a Vietnamese fishing boat and crew it had seized near the disputed Paracel Islands a month ago, ending the latest flare-up between the nations. China earlier said that the crew must pay a fine, and Vietnam said that the crew members had been mistreated.
By Vietnam's count, 63 fishing boats with 725 crew members have been seized since 2005 in areas claimed by China.
In March, China raised the level of its territorial claim, asserting that the South China Sea was a "core concern," a phrase that placed it on a par with Taiwan and Tibet, its most politically contentious territorial interests.
In response, during a visit to Hanoi in July, Clinton hardened Washington's stance by saying the United States had a "national interest" in freedom of navigation in the area.
In balancing its relations between the two major powers, Vietnam has been at pains to reassure China, the giant on its doorstep, that it would have no alliances, military bases or military coalitions that threatened China.
While Vietnam marked the 15th anniversary of diplomatic ties with the United States this year, it also celebrated a much longer diplomatic relationship of 60 years with China.
Hanoi's warming toward Washington has also been slowed by suspicions of American motives and commitment to a Vietnam policy, analysts said.
They said Washington's relations with Vietnam had always been part of larger international interests and could shift as those interests changed.
Once again, as it was during the war, America's stance toward Vietnam is one piece in a broader China policy.
Toeing a careful line, Vietnam insists that its policies toward the two nations are independent of each other.
"You should not look at Vietnam's relationship with the United States through the prism of China," said Nguyen Nam Duong, a research fellow at the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam, a branch of the Foreign Ministry.
"Vietnam will have independent relations with both the United States and China, and we want to separate those relations from each other," he said in an interview on Tuesday.
Quite apart from their relations with China, the two former wartime enemies have grown steadily closer. Trade relations were normalised in 2006. Port calls by United States naval vessels have become more frequent since the first one in 2003.
"It's a very deliberate pace that's being kept here," said Carlyle Thayer, an expert on Vietnam at the Australian Defense Force Academy at the University of New South Wales in Sydney.
"Neither side wants to be used by the other, but both want to advance the relationship," he said.
Clinton took an exuberant tone last month when she said, "The progress between Vietnam and the United States has been breathtaking."
Vietnamese officials have been less effusive, but they seem to agree.
"Vietnam and the United States are enjoying an excellent period of bilateral relations," the Vietnamese ambassador to the United States, Le Cong Phung, said in remarks quoted by the official Vietnam News Agency last month.
However, warming relations have been slowed by American concerns over human rights abuses in Vietnam and by Hanoi's suspicion that Washington is using the issue to undermine the Communist government.
The Vietnamese often use the phrases "peaceful evolution" and the "color revolutions," expressions that refer to their view that the collapse of the Soviet Union and other European Communist governments was brought about at least partly by outside support for democracy and human rights.
The competing concerns involving human rights renew themselves in something of a vicious circle. Vietnam's fear of American motives leads to the arrests of dissidents it sees as connected with the West. And those arrests in turn intensify concerns of the United States over human rights abuses.
The two nations' alignment on the issue of the South China Sea illustrates the emergence of a more forward-looking relationship, said Kim Ninh, the country representative in Vietnam for The Asia Foundation, which is based in San Francisco.
For the United States, the chief issue from the past continues to be a full accounting for military service members still missing from the war, though that concern no longer carries the power that it once did.
For Vietnam, the chief remaining postwar issue is a demand for greater American assistance in addressing the effects of Agent Orange, a chemical defoliant that was sprayed in parts of the country, causing widespread birth defects.
Duong of the Foreign Ministry said these postwar issues remained "very relevant."
"In terms of defense relations, we still need to settle the issues of the past so as to build trust to move toward the future," he said.
But he said that bilateral relations "have never been better" and that "they can only go upward. They cannot go downward."vnnews
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT - IFC plans to invest in ABBank
International Finance Corp (IFC), a member of the World Bank (WB), intends to invest in An Binh Commercial Joint Stock Bank (ABBank), according to IFC's website.
In its investment portfolio, IFC plans to invest some $50 million in ABBank. At the same time, IFC will provide a $25 million loan for ABBank including $20 million from IFC and $5 million from Clean Technology Fund.
According to IFC, the $50 million investment may be poured under convertible bond form. This capital source would help ABBank ensure better the bank's capital adequacy ratio (CAR).
Meanwhile, the $25 million credit loan is to support activities on environmental protection and energy saving. This project is consistent with IFC's strategy in Vietnam and in accordance with the WB's goal of using the market mechanism to mitigate impacts of climate changes in Vietnam.
According to ABBank, IFC is under studying and negotiating period with the local bank about the $50 million investment.
Currently, ABBank cooperates with IFC in two programmes namely development consultancy for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) and support for firms that committed to protect the environment and save energy.
IFC also pledged to provide supports on technique, customer consultancy and improve corporate management for the local bank.
ABBank now has a chartered capital of 3.482 trillion dong and it would be 3.83 trillion dong after offering bonus shares at the ratio of 10 percent from the bank's capital surplus to the shareholders by the end of this year.
Till the end of September, the bank posted 36.257 trillion dong in total assets, total outstanding loans at 17.956 trillion dong including 13.42 trillion dong for enterprises.
During the first nine months this year, the lender gained 546.2 billion dong of pre tax profit, a year-on-year rise of 94.1 percent.
Last weekend, IFC also signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to invest in Vietnam Commercial Joint Stock Bank for Industry and Trade (VietinBank). VietinBank's leader said IFC plans to buy 10 percent stake worth $190 million in VietinBank.TBKT
Oliver Massmann
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